glacial recession

MAJOR STORM CYCLE ARRIVES

UP TO 75 CM OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• March is historically the most dangerous month for avalanches in B.C.
• The snowpack remains complex, with storm and wind slabs over persistent weak layers
• A strong storm will bring widespread snowfall from Wednesday into Thursday night
• Interior mountains could see 20–75 cm of new snow through Saturday
• A warm atmospheric river next week could push snow levels sharply higher
• The snowpack remains complex, making conditions challenging to assess

AVALANCHE CONDITIONS

March is historically and statistically the most dangerous month for avalanches in B.C.

The snowpack remains complex, with recent storm and wind slabs sitting over deeper persistent weak layers. That combination means avalanches may propagate wider and run farther than riders expect, even around treeline and below treeline.

Avalanche Canada states that staying close to trees doesn’t always mean safer travel. Riders should steer clear of slopes with overhead hazards and steep alpine terrain, relying on terrain management rather than just the snowpack. Slopes often thought to be safer — like treed or gladed areas — can still have avalanches triggered in steep forest openings.

Anyone heading into the backcountry should be familiar with the terrain and carry proper safety gear: a transceiver, shovel, and probe, along with a reliable means of communication.

Earlier this winter demonstrated how quickly conditions can change. After a dry start to 2026 in the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest, storms eventually brought heavy, dangerous snowfall. Over two weeks, avalanches claimed the lives of five skiers and snowmobilers near Canmore, Alta., and in the B.C. communities of Fernie, Revelstoke, Pemberton, and Creston. South of the border, nine people died in a large avalanche in California’s Sierra Nevada.

Researchers say avalanche risk could increase as climate change alters mountain weather. A 2024 study in the journal Nature confirmed findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicating that avalanche activity may increase at high elevations as precipitation levels rise.

Canada has warmed by about 2.4°C from 1948 to 2024. Warmer air holds more moisture, causing more precipitation — more rain at lower elevations and heavier snowfall higher in the mountains. Climate change is also shifting the weather towards a feast-or-famine cycle, with longer dry spells and intense storms, such as atmospheric rivers, delivering weeks of moisture in just a few days.

For backcountry riders, this can mean poor snow seasons, more rain-on-snow events, and sometimes walking kilometres to reach the snowline. It can also create pressure to make the most of limited snow days, which might lead travellers to underestimate avalanche hazards or venture into higher-risk terrain.

Avalanche conditions remain complex across much of the province. Conditions can vary significantly across short distances in the mountains.

INCOMING STORM CYCLE

A strong, cold storm will bring widespread snow to much of B.C. this week, with the heaviest snowfall expected from Wednesday into Thursday night.

The system moves in as a surface low approaches Vancouver Island and a warm front pushes into southern B.C., leading to heavy snowfall. Strong southwest winds are also expected in the alpine across the Coast Range and Interior.

Snowfall rates are expected to peak later in the week as the low moves across southern B.C.

Snow levels may briefly increase in the storm’s warm sector — around 600 metres at Whistler, 900 metres on the North Shore, and approximately 1,200 metres across parts of the southern Interior, including Red, Whitewater, and Fernie — before falling again behind the cold front early Thursday.

Further north — Sun Peaks, Revelstoke, and Kicking Horse — temperatures should rise only slightly, with snow levels remaining near the valley floors. Snow is expected to stay lighter and drier, while Red, Whitewater, and Fernie may experience denser snow overnight.

Behind the main system, a moderate westerly flow should keep snow showers going from Friday into Friday night. Another weaker disturbance is reaching southwest B.C. Friday evening and could bring additional snow to parts of the Interior overnight.

ESTIMATED SNOWFALL (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)

Fernie: 37–75 cm
Revelstoke, Whitewater, Rogers Pass, Kootenay Pass: 30–60 cm
Kicking Horse, Big White, Silver Star, Apex: 25–50 cm
Panorama, Kimberley: 22–45 cm
Sun Peaks: 20–40 cm

Most Interior resorts should see a healthy refresh from this cycle. Actual totals may vary locally, depending on wind and terrain.

LOOKING AHEAD

A few lingering snow showers are possible on Saturday, followed by a brief break in the pattern. Cold temperatures should keep snow conditions soft, although sun-exposed slopes could be affected.

A bigger shift is expected next week.

A storm arriving on Sunday or Sunday night will likely start with heavy snow as snow levels are still low. The system is expected to change into a warm atmospheric river, which could rapidly increase snow levels on Monday and Tuesday (March 16–17) — possibly reaching the summits of higher-elevation resorts like Whistler, Revelstoke, and Kicking Horse.

In short, enjoy the snowy pattern this week while it lasts. A warmer, wetter stretch could follow, with cooler air potentially returning later in March.

As always, conditions can vary significantly over short distances in the mountains, and recent field observations are often the best indicator of current avalanche hazard.

Staying safe begins with being well-informed and communicating clearly with your group. Be willing to adjust objectives as conditions evolve and let observations—rather than rigid plans—guide your decisions. Travelling in the winter mountains can involve risk, but slowing down and making cautious choices can significantly reduce it. Respect the terrain, keep an eye on each other, and be prepared to idle back when necessary. Not hiring a guide? Check out the BLBCA Self-Guided Recommendations or Avalanche Canada’s Trip Planner.

For the latest forecasts, trip planning tools and field reports, visit Avalanche Canada.

Brad Harrison, Colwest Alpine Adventures
Professional Member, Canadian Avalanche Association
Executive Director, Backcountry Lodges of BC Association
www.colwest.ca

During BC’s February Warm-Up

It’s early February, and a significant shift in weather and avalanche conditions is underway across British Columbia. A strong warming trend is developing as an atmospheric river transports mild air into the province this week. Adding to the concern is a widespread layer of large surface hoar resting on a crust that has recently been buried across most forecast regions—an especially worrisome setup as temperatures rise, particularly for snowpacks in the BC Interior.

Recent avalanche activity demonstrates how reactive this layer is, highlighting the ongoing significant shift in weather and avalanche conditions this season. Both natural and rider-triggered avalanches have been reported, with several catching backcountry users off guard. Remote triggering has also been observed, indicating continued instability in the snowpack. Freezing levels climbed to around 2000m today in many areas and are expected to rise above 3000m tomorrow in the south. With periods of sunshine mixed in, conditions are likely to shift quickly toward a spring-like feel. As a result, understanding snowpacks in the BC Interior becomes even more important for safety.

While some details remain uncertain, the overall trend is evident: avalanche danger is increasing, and widespread natural avalanches are possible. Along the coast, more rain will fall on an already saturated snowpack. The main concern remains in the Interior, where warm temperatures have not yet tested this weak layer. With mild conditions expected to continue into the weekend, dangerous avalanche conditions are likely to persist across many areas, so monitoring snowpacks in the BC Interior is crucial during this period as we face a significant shift in weather and avalanche conditions.

Looking ahead, a strengthening ridge of high pressure will keep conditions mostly dry while maintaining well-above-average temperatures across much of BC. This pattern is expected to persist in the short term, representing a sharp departure from the colder conditions observed recently. For many areas, it will feel more like early spring than mid-winter. Confidence is growing that this ridge will start to break down next week, allowing a return to a more typical weather pattern. Moreover, a significant shift in weather and avalanche conditions will likely follow this change.

Interior BC Weather and Snow
Before the ridge fully settles in, the Interior will see a couple of weak systems moving through. A cold front is forecast to pass during the week, bringing a quick burst of snowfall ranging from 1 to 10cm. Snow levels should start near 1500m before dropping to around 1200m as the precipitation eases. Winds will be moderate from the southwest to west-southwest and should stay below impactful levels. Therefore, monitoring snowpack in the BC Interior is recommended as weather events unfold.

Another system arrives later in the week as a warm front moves through. Snow will begin late morning in the Okanagan and early afternoon along the Powder Highway, tapering off later in the day. This appears to be another short-lived, light event, with totals generally between 1 and 8cm. Snow levels will start near 1050m before rising towards 1200m, making the warm-up more gradual than along the coast. A significant overnight warm-up on Monday night is unlikely in the Interior.

Further inland, spillover into the Selkirks and Purcells seems limited, with only brief bursts of moisture and relatively mild winds. Over the next two days, snowfall is forecasted to be lighter, with about 5–10cm for Revelstoke and Silver Star, 3–8cm for Sun Peaks, and closer to 1–5cm for Kicking Horse.

For skiing, you’ll want to stay higher in the mountains. Terrain above about 1500m will have the best snow, while lower elevations tend to be wetter or more variable as temperatures rise.

Skiing is best at higher elevations. Above roughly 1500m, snow quality significantly improves, while at lower altitudes it tends to feel wet, heavy, or patchy as temperatures increase. Upper-elevation terrain should retain softer snow through Sunday and Monday, and likely into Tuesday, with a few light refreshes from these weaker systems.

With so much change happening, relying on the information available to us is more important than ever. One of the advantages of recreating in BC is the variety of forecasting and observation tools at our disposal. Avalanche Canada’s Mountain Weather Forecast, Windy, and YR.no are all reliable sources, and DriveBC highway forecasts can provide valuable insights into temperature trends and upcoming weather. If it’s been a while since your last avalanche course, a refresher with a local provider is always a good idea—especially during seasons marked by persistent weak layers. Consequently, staying up to date on significant shifts in weather and avalanche conditions is vital to planning outdoor adventures this month.

If you’re heading into the backcountry, preparation is key. Understand what the avalanche ratings are by visiting Avalanche Canada. High means natural avalanches are likely, and people are very likely to trigger slides. Considerable means natural avalanches are possible, and human-triggered slides are likely—conditions where small decisions can have big consequences. Moderate means that natural avalanches are less likely, but human-triggered avalanches remain a possibility, especially where weak layers are known. These ratings should directly influence your terrain choices and travel plans.

Staying safe begins with being well-informed and communicating clearly with your group. Be willing to adjust objectives as conditions evolve and let observations—rather than rigid plans—guide your decisions. Travelling in the winter mountains can involve risk, but slowing down and making cautious choices can significantly reduce it. Respect the terrain, keep an eye on each other, and be prepared to idle back when necessary. Not hiring a guide? Check out the BLBCA Self-Guided Recommendations or Avalanche Canada’s Trip Planner.

Brad Harrison, Colwest Alpine Adventures
Professional Member, Canadian Avalanche Association
Executive Director, Backcountry Lodges of BC Association
www.colwest.ca

A New Year’s Tale

For the BC Interior, the early-season snowpack situation has been a “best of time”- “worst of time” set of scenarios. The quality and quantity of snowpacks in the BC Interior have been a bit of a dog’s breakfast. We have had the usual elevation-specific dividing line for both risk and riding quality. Earlier, there was a clear dividing line between precipitation types: rain at lower elevations and significant snowfall at higher elevations, resulting in good riding conditions in the alpine but challenging access.

There has also been an anomalous pattern of consistently heavy snowfall in areas near Revelstoke and across the eastern ranges. Lake Louise is seeing a record-breaking start to the season, with the deepest early-season snowpack in 75 years. As of January 6, the Upper Mountain Base had recorded an impressive 533 cm of snowfall. Over Rogers Pass, ski touring has been defined by punishing trail-breaking, with seasonal totals sitting around 335 cm as of January 2^nd. A recent storm delivered up to 40 cm over the January 3^rd–4^th weekend, with another 10–20 cm expected in the following cycle.

Meanwhile, many areas west and south of Revelstoke have been receiving significant precipitation, but much of it has been rain. Our thoughts and support are with anyone affected by the heavy rainfall and atmospheric river events experienced throughout November, December and into January. The warm temperatures and heavy rain have raised concerns about a weakening snowpack for both recreational riders and professional guides. At times, Avalanche Canada has indicated that the avalanche hazard is significant and has posted the “Danger Rating” as high. Storm systems persisted from mid-December through the Christmas period, driving a rapid increase in mountain snowpacks throughout the BC Interior. Drier and colder conditions during the final week of December reduced snow accumulation.

Most forecast models are pointing toward the development of a high-pressure ridge over western North America by mid-January, which isn’t great news for snow lovers. That said, more recent trends suggest the ridge may set up farther inland, leaving the door open for warm, moisture-laden storms to track into the BC Interior from the southwest. It’s still not an ideal pattern, as freezing levels and snow lines are expected to rise—especially along the Coast. That could mean rain for areas such as Whistler, the North Shore, and Vancouver Island later in the period as temperatures rise. The Interior will also see some warming, but it should be less pronounced than along the Coast, with precipitation amounts remaining more uncertain.

Northern zones, such as Revelstoke and Kicking Horse, are most likely to receive snow with this setup. While the base at Revelstoke might experience some rain at times, most of the skiable terrain should remain well above the rain–snow line. Further south, moisture appears more limited, reducing the potential for snowfall. As freezing levels rise, rain remains possible but should be pretty limited.

Overall, conditions should improve the farther inland you go and the higher you ascend, even as temperatures rise into early next week. Later in the month, the high-pressure ridge is forecast to move west, just off the coast. That positioning will likely block most storm systems, though it may also allow colder air to flow in from the north. Long-range guidance indicates limited moisture reaching BC, mainly impacting the Interior, with the possibility of occasional light snowfall. At this stage, the systems appear moisture-starved, and a colder, drier pattern appears more likely.

When planning a backcountry winter trip, it’s worth taking advantage of the range of online tools now available to you and your group. Avalanche Canada’s Trip Planner and the BLBCA’s “Recommendations for Self-Guided Groups” are solid resources when you’re deciding where to head for a day tour or a multi-day objective. One tool that’s newer to me—but has definitely caught my attention—is snowpack.avalanche.ca. While we wait for the snowpack to continue building, the depth filter has been an easy way to fixate on numbers. Many mapping apps now offer similar features, and it’s a good reminder of just how useful these digital tools have become for solid pre-trip planning.

As always, staying safe starts with staying informed, keeping communication open, and being willing to adapt as conditions change. Winter brings its challenges, but that’s part of what makes time in the mountains so rewarding. With a bit of planning and some honest decision-making, there’s still lots to enjoy while keeping risk in check. Make good calls, respect the backcountry, and aim for a season full of solid days out. Please recreate responsibly—and encourage others to do the same.

Brad Harrison
Colwest Alpine Adventures
www.colwest.ca
Professional Member, Canadian Avalanche Association
Executive Director, Backcountry Lodges of BC Association

Between Storms & Structure?

I don’t have a very clear picture of the snowpack right now, mostly because I haven’t been out as much as I’d like. From what I can gather, we had some decent early-season snowfall through late October and early November before it dried up for a while. A warm spell in mid-November then formed a widespread rain crust, reaching an elevation of about 2100–2200 metres. That crust is now buried fairly deep, and it seems like most of what we’re dealing with now are various storm interfaces, with the occasional surface hoar layer lingering in more isolated treeline spots. With that broader context in mind, the immediate question is how the recent storms are building on this structure and what that means for travel and decision-making going forward.

Looking ahead, a series of warm atmospheric river events loaded with subtropical moisture and strong winds is forecast to impact the Pacific Northwest and southern BC through approximately mid-December. While this should bring ample precipitation, warmer temperatures and winds are likely to continue complicating the snowpack, especially at lower and mid elevations. Beyond December 15, the longer-term outlook seems somewhat more promising, with signs that cooler air may eventually return to the region. However, the current warm spell may take some time to dissipate entirely.

We were out teaching an avalanche course behind Sun Peaks on Sunday. December 14th, which helped clarify some of this. Snow depths in that area averaged around 85 cm, with a relatively simple structure of two to three layers. One notable layer was a supportive crust at a depth of about 45–50 cm. However, what stood out more than the layering was the temperature. Even on shaded aspects, it was around +4 °C at 2050 metres. We encountered upside-down powder — not ideal for enjoyable riding.

Conditions are clearly in transition, and it feels like winter is finally beginning to lean in. Most forecast areas expect a steady stream of precipitation through the weekend and into the coming week, which means the snowpack we’ve been discussing is about to be tested. As snow continues to accumulate, it’s prudent to step back and choose more conservative terrain while conditions adjust.

Although coverage at lower elevations remains limited, riding conditions at higher elevations have been quite good thus far, with relatively manageable avalanche risk in many areas. However, these conditions are evolving, and the approach that has worked so far might not be practical as the snowpack deepens. Clear, cold periods in mid to late November allowed weak layers to develop at the surface, including thin sun crusts, surface hoar, and facets reported across much of western Canada. In many regions, a November rain crust was later buried and has since developed facets above it. That layer is more likely to cause problems when rain falls on an already supportive snow surface, which is more common in lower-elevation alpine terrain. For now, it appears that the more recent layers at higher elevations in the snowpack are the primary concern.

Recently, lighter snowfall has gradually accumulated on these weak layers. With more snow expected—and possibly intensifying—it wouldn’t take much to tip the balance towards more reactive slab conditions. As these weak layers become more deeply buried, the risk of wider propagation and remote triggering grows.

In the near term, it’s wise to take a cautious approach. For now, keep things small and low risk, while closely monitoring snow conditions throughout the day. Below the treeline, coverage remains sparse in many areas, with rocks, stumps, and open creeks just beneath the surface. Fresh snow will make spotting these hazards more difficult, so it’s essential to plan your exits and travel routes as carefully as the descent itself.

Always check your favourite weather apps and online resources — sites like Windy.com and YR.no are good places to start — and make a habit of reviewing Avalanche Canada before heading out. If you’re planning to visit a backcountry lodge or hut and will be travelling without a guide, it’s worth taking the time to read through the BLBCA’s Recommendations for Self-Guided Groups. The purpose of that document is simple: to offer some common-sense practices that help keep people safe, without taking away from the stoke we’re all chasing when we head into the mountains. Having fun and being safe aren’t mutually exclusive.

Brad Harrison
Colwest Alpine Adventures
www.colwest.ca
Professional Member, Canadian Avalanche Association
Executive Director, Backcountry Lodges of BC Association

Words & Photos by Lynn Martel

Five years ago, my book, Stories of Ice: Adventure Commerce and Creativity on Canada’s Glaciers, was published.

Having a book released in the middle of a global pandemic is not something I would wish for any author. Still, since publishing timelines are set many months, even years ahead, the process is a bit like wishing for a perfect snowpack when you book next winter’s lodge trip.

I didn’t write Stories of Ice to tell individual stories, but to convey the broader story of what glaciers mean to us in Western Canada. I chose each story like adding another snowflake to the layers of how glaciers have shaped Canadians’ lives, and how they continue to. These stories are timeless.

Canada’s landscape was shaped by glaciers over repeated ice ages. Glaciers shaped BC’s mountains, from the Rockies to the Coast Mountains and all the ranges in between. The first humans arrived in North America after the major valley-bottom glaciers of the last Ice Age had melted, some 11,000 (Rockies) to 14,000 (Coast) years ago. The fur trade that brought Europeans to Canada’s West was in part fueled by the Little Ice Age that chilled the North Atlantic region from the 1600s to the 1900s. The railway that connects Canada’s east and west coasts – completed in 1885 – brought our first glacier viewing tourists, along with hotels, horse outfitters and climbers.

When I see glaciers – particularly in western Canada – I don’t just see ancient ice. I see stories. From the first Swiss guides to hike up the Death Trap at Lake Louise, to Mary Vaux and her brothers conducting North America’s first glacier science on the Illecillewaet, to Guy Edwards and John Millar skiing the Coast Mountains traverse for half a year in 2001. From Byron Harmon’s photos of Lake of the Hanging Glacier to today’s Instagrammers.

Anyone connected to Western Canada’s backcountry skiing community will recognize a lot of names on these pages, from Collie and Thompson’s outrageous 1897 crevasse rescue on the Wapta Icefield, to Hans Gmoser’s legendary backcountry skiing weeks in Little Yoho’s deep 1950s snowpacks, to Tannis Dakin watching Nordic Glacier shrink from season to season from Sorcerer Lodge’s living room window over three decades.

Glacier stories flow through the snowpack of all our lives.

I feel the fact we have stories to share makes our glaciers that much more valuable. Glaciers are inhospitable environments, and many of the experiences we share with friends and partners on them are out of the ordinary. Cold, harsh winds, heavy packs, mysterious crevasses, exquisitely beautiful arches and caves. That makes them extra worthy of celebrating, especially as they melt, much, much faster than they’ve ever melted at any other time in the history of humans living on Earth.

I’ve enjoyed sharing lots of Stories of Ice slide shows over these five years, with climbing clubs, schools, environmental groups and corporate getaways. As an IGA-certified Interpretive Hiking Guide, I’ve led glacier storytelling workshops for my colleagues and the general public. My shows include dozens and dozens of fabulous photos to accompany the stories, and who doesn’t love looking at spectacular glacier photos? Some of the stories are darned funny too, which nicely balances out the melting aspect. Wild things can happen on glaciers.  

Earlier this year, I wrote a feature article for Alberta Views magazine about MELTDOWN: A Drop in Time photo exhibit now on display at the Columbia Icefield Centre until 2027, accessible to viewers when the centre reopens in spring.

“The images were downright jaw-dropping. Giant prints—some wider than many living room walls—featured sculpted, polished and glimmering blue glacier ice, some resembling splendid precious gems. Others showed no ice at all. Dry rock, bare, sharp ridgelines, rubbly moraine slopes, naked cliff bands. Dark, dirty, dry and withered ice. Dying ice. On one hand, the ultimate eye candy for a glacier lover; on the other, a bitter aftertaste of reality.”

For me, this paragraph sums up how many of us feel watching glaciers we know, glaciers with roles in the stories of our own lives, melt and slowly – or not so slowly – diminish.

Meltdown is the project of alpine and ice climbing hardman Jim Elzinga, in partnership with cinematographer Roger Vernon. Watching the routes he pioneered in the 1980s disappear inspired Elzinga to found Guardians of the Ice, a non-profit focused on the steadily shrinking Columbia Icefield as an indicator of the worldwide climate crisis.

Elizinga chose the large-scale photo format to immerse viewers in an IMAX-like experience. “I feel this is the best way to create an emotional connection with the viewer and provide them with an experience as if they were actually in the mountains. Our purpose is to effectively engage the public to build support for a low-carbon future.”

Toward this end, Elzinga is a partner with the 2025 United Nations International Year of Glaciers Preservation. I am a partner too.

The IYGP was proposed in 2022 by Tajikistan, whose 13,000 glaciers supply the mountain headwaters of Central Asia and serve some 2 billion people downstream. Most of the world’s glaciated countries are participating, and with Switzerland’s glaciers having lost 10 per cent of their volume in two years alone—2022 and 2023—that country and France announced significant commitments.

The Year’s purpose is to raise awareness of the vital role glaciers, snow and ice play in the climate system and water cycle, as well as the far-reaching impacts of rapid glacier melt. For our part, a full quarter of Earth’s remaining ice is found in Canada, with some 18,000 glaciers in the mountain west, 16,000 in BC.

A 2015 study found that western Canada would lose 60 to 80 per cent of its glacier ice by 2100, with the bulk of the melting occurring between 2020 and 2040.

And I’ve since wondered, what would the melting look like?

The answer has become more visible since the 2021 Heat Dome that roasted western Canada. For excellent info about Canada’s glaciers and their melt pace, visit www.unglacieryear.ca

For my part, I’m always finding more stories. I shared some in the Summer/Fall issue of Columbia Valley magazine, The Trench. I spoke about the value of glacier storytelling on a panel with filmmaker Roger Vernon, Leanne Allison, and Swiss photographer Jean-Francois Delhom at the Fire and Ice Symposium at the Banff Mountain Film Festival in November.

And every summer, I spend my free days hiking with my camera to various favourite glaciers, many of them not studied by scientists, but well-known to backcountry skiers.

It’s not easy photographing the melting, thin, dehydrated, shrivelling ice. New rock buttresses are exposed, like on Mount Hector. I would have liked to visit Abbot Pass Hut once more. I expect we’ll soon learn sections of the Rockies’ Great Divide alpine traverse are no longer skiable.

But it’s been said that the best way to fight grief is to seek joy.

And I find joy amidst our glaciers.

Sometimes brilliant blue ice. Sculpted icebergs floating in turquoise melt pools. Salmon Glacier last summer was spectacular.

And I’m learning the landscape that emerges after the ice melts. It’s a raw, wild, primal landscape. Fascinating rock formations. I’ve learned which plants move in first – Mountain Avens, and willow bushes. Stonecrop. It’s a rebirth after centuries, millennia of ice blanketing that land.

We honour our glaciers by sharing their stories.

Lynn Martel has published three books with Rocky Mountain Books, plus 10 biographical booklets and countless articles about the people, places and unique culture of western Canada’s mountain world. View her books, photography or hire her for a Stories of Ice presentation at www.lynnmartel.ca

For other stories of ice, check out our blog Year of the Glacier.

La Niña or ENSO Neutral?

Last year’s weather forecast of a strong La Niña flow never really materialized. The winter of 2024/25 started with a bang, dried up mid-season, and recovered somewhat towards the end. By season’s end, we were left with a near-average snowfall throughout much of BC’s Interior. And, of course, there will always be exceptions across the province.

Looking ahead to the winter of 2025–2026, it’s shaping up to be another borderline season, much like last year. Current forecasts indicate a start to the winter with an ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)-neutral pattern, followed by a transition to a weaker La Niña pattern by the end of the season. Over the past month, ocean temperatures in a key area of the Pacific (the Niño-3.4 region) have been about half a degree cooler than usual.

This cooler trend—roughly 0.5°C below average—is expected to persist for several months, which is one of the signs that a La Niña pattern may be developing.

To sum it up, “most” of the weather experts feel that the early season in our region, Nov-Jan, will be ridge-dominant, providing lower to normal snowfall. In contrast, the mid-to-late season will see the ridge weaken, and a trough-dominant system develop over our area, allowing for above-normal snowfall. Always remember that long-range weather forecasts are inherently unreliable; they provide historical trends and “likelihoods”.

As we move through December, it is worth doing a quick summary of snowpack variations across alpine, treeline, and below treeline throughout the province. Avalanche Canada has started its daily forecasts. Make sure to check your local forecast as well as any Mountain Information Network reports that refer to areas adjacent to your riding destinations.

As you get ready for winter, take a moment to go over your gear and make sure everything’s in good working order—especially your transceiver. Even the pros regularly practice their companion rescue skills, so grab your touring partners and run a few drills together. Check that your tape, glue, spare batteries, and other essentials are all in good condition. And while you’re at it, when was the last time you re-glued your skins or gave your board or skis a fresh wax? A little prep now goes a long way once you’re out there.

We are fortunate in B.C. to have many resources, such as detailed weather forecasts, at our fingertips. Some of my go-tos resources include Avalanche Canada’s Mountain Weather Forecast, Windy.com, YR.NO, and DriveBC’s highway forecasts, which can also provide important information. You may want to consider taking an avalanche course or a refresher course with a local provider. Check out our own Know Before You Go, great info.

If you’re heading into the backcountry, including ducking a rope at a ski hill, make sure you’re well prepared and understand the avalanche danger ratings before you go. Understand what Avalanche Canada’s Public Avalanche Bulletin is trying to tell you. Know what each level means—High means natural avalanches are likely and human-triggered ones are very likely; Considerable means natural avalanches are possible, and human-triggered ones are likely; and Moderate means natural avalanches are unlikely, but human-triggered ones are still possible. If you have done your research and are prepared, it’s doubtful you will be surprised. If you are uncertain, it’s always good practice to jump on a guided trip at a BLBCA member lodge or hire an independent, certified guide(s). You will benefit from their experience. Be sure to hire an ACMG– or CSGA-certified guide.

In the name of safety, let’s stay informed, keep communication open, and be prepared to adjust your plans as conditions change. Winter always brings its share of challenges—but that’s part of the adventure. With some thoughtful planning, we can enjoy everything the alpine has to offer while keeping risks in check. Here’s to making wise choices, respecting the backcountry, and creating a winter full of great memories. And as always, please recreate responsibly—and encourage others to do the same.

Sincerely, Brad Harrison
Professional Member, Canadian Avalanche Association
Executive Director, Backcountry Lodges of BC Association

Why Choose a BLBCA Lodge this Winter

Discovering the outdoors from a lodge deep in the wilderness isn’t just about the destination — it’s about the whole journey. From earning your turns on skis or a snowboard to returning to a rustic retreat surrounded by alpine stillness, a backcountry lodge stay offers something deeper and more connected than the average mountain getaway, with 32 lodges in the Backcountry Lodges of B.C. Association (BLBCA) network tucked in British Columbia’s four major ranges (the Rockies, Columbia Mountains, Cariboo-Chilcotins and Coast Range). Staying at one of these lodges can make befriending the blbca lodge network even more rewarding.

Here are five compelling reasons to find a lodge near you this season:

Amazing Get-Aways
These lodges are intentionally tucked away: no highways, no resort crowds. Most BLBCA lodges are reached by helicopter in winter, with some snowcat and self-propelled options. Once on site, you’re immersed in genuine wilderness, offering ample opportunities to see wildlife in their winter habitat.

Shake the Crowds
Due to the location of the lodges, you won’t share parking lots or lift lines. Many lodges host relatively few guests (averaging 12 beds per lodge), offering a more personal and intimate experience, just what you would expect from a blbca lodge.

Fresh Powder/Fresh Tracks
If riding in April matters to you, these locations deliver: skiing, split-boarding, snowshoeing, and exploring vast terrain just outside your door. The appeal of late-season pristine powder is very real and achievable. Check out local snowpack and weather conditions.

Options: Self-Catered/Guided or Catered/Guided
While “backcountry” suggests ruggedness, BLBCA member lodges offer a full range, from rustic to luxurious. Choose whether to self-cater or opt for a fully catered package. After a day of exploration, you’ll return to cozy accommodations, delicious meals, a sauna, and a great place to “chill”. A retreat at a blbca lodge ensures a memorable experience.

BC’s Backcountry at its Finest
You’ll find yourself surrounded by high-mountain forests, glacial ridges, alpine meadows, and wide-open skies. Beyond the scenery, many lodges are operated with a strong focus on sustainability, low-impact access, and environmental stewardship — making the experience more meaningful than just the activity you are enjoying.

In short: if you’re looking to #unpluginBC, get out, earn your turns, and then relax in BC’s inimitable backcountry — choose a lodge from the BLBCA network. Staying at a BLBCA Lodge offers an unparalleled wilderness experience.