La Niña or ENSO Neutral?
Last year’s weather forecast of a strong La Niña flow never really materialized. The winter of 2024/25 started with a bang, dried up mid-season, and recovered somewhat towards the end. By season’s end, we were left with a near-average snowfall throughout much of BC’s Interior. And, of course, there will always be exceptions across the province.
Looking ahead to the winter of 2025–2026, it’s shaping up to be another borderline season, much like last year. Current forecasts indicate a start to the winter with an ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)-neutral pattern, followed by a transition to a weaker La Niña pattern by the end of the season. Over the past month, ocean temperatures in a key area of the Pacific (the Niño-3.4 region) have been about half a degree cooler than usual.
This cooler trend—roughly 0.5°C below average—is expected to persist for several months, which is one of the signs that a La Niña pattern may be developing.
To sum it up, “most” of the weather experts feel that the early season in our region, Nov-Jan, will be ridge-dominant, providing lower to normal snowfall. In contrast, the mid-to-late season will see the ridge weaken, and a trough-dominant system develop over our area, allowing for above-normal snowfall. Always remember that long-range weather forecasts are inherently unreliable; they provide historical trends and “likelihoods”.
As we move through December, it is worth doing a quick summary of snowpack variations across alpine, treeline, and below treeline throughout the province. Avalanche Canada has started its daily forecasts. Make sure to check your local forecast as well as any Mountain Information Network reports that refer to areas adjacent to your riding destinations.
As you get ready for winter, take a moment to go over your gear and make sure everything’s in good working order—especially your transceiver. Even the pros regularly practice their companion rescue skills, so grab your touring partners and run a few drills together. Check that your tape, glue, spare batteries, and other essentials are all in good condition. And while you’re at it, when was the last time you re-glued your skins or gave your board or skis a fresh wax? A little prep now goes a long way once you’re out there.
We are fortunate in B.C. to have many resources, such as detailed weather forecasts, at our fingertips. Some of my go-tos resources include Avalanche Canada’s Mountain Weather Forecast, Windy.com, YR.NO, and DriveBC’s highway forecasts, which can also provide important information. You may want to consider taking an avalanche course or a refresher course with a local provider. Check out our own Know Before You Go, great info.
If you’re heading into the backcountry, including ducking a rope at a ski hill, make sure you’re well prepared and understand the avalanche danger ratings before you go. Understand what Avalanche Canada’s Public Avalanche Bulletin is trying to tell you. Know what each level means—High means natural avalanches are likely and human-triggered ones are very likely; Considerable means natural avalanches are possible, and human-triggered ones are likely; and Moderate means natural avalanches are unlikely, but human-triggered ones are still possible. If you have done your research and are prepared, it’s doubtful you will be surprised. If you are uncertain, it’s always good practice to jump on a guided trip at a BLBCA member lodge or hire an independent, certified guide(s). You will benefit from their experience. Be sure to hire an ACMG– or CSGA-certified guide.
In the name of safety, let’s stay informed, keep communication open, and be prepared to adjust your plans as conditions change. Winter always brings its share of challenges—but that’s part of the adventure. With some thoughtful planning, we can enjoy everything the alpine has to offer while keeping risks in check. Here’s to making wise choices, respecting the backcountry, and creating a winter full of great memories. And as always, please recreate responsibly—and encourage others to do the same.
Sincerely, Brad Harrison
Professional Member, Canadian Avalanche Association
Executive Director, Backcountry Lodges of BC Association
